Governor Polis gets it right
Published in the Boulder Daily Camera, 4/23/20
What we need from our leaders during this coronavirus crisis are informed, well-thought out, and timely decisions that find the right balance between our health, economy, and need for social interaction.
To be sure, some decisions are much harder than others. In the case of coronavirus, the decision to lock down last month was easy. It became clear a few weeks into March that most of us had to go sit in a corner for a while to give our hospitals a fighting chance to handle the coming storm. Given that we have yet to hear of a state that ran out of hospital beds or ventilators, it seems that our leaders got that one right.
The much harder decisions were always going to be about when and how to let us go back to work and play together. Every day that passed without knowing when our lives would start moving back to normal was torturous. As the damage to our economy and psychological well-being piled up, the reasons to move past lockdown became ever more important. But, we didn't want to open the social faucet too much too fast and go back to drowning in coronavirus.
Scary, to say the least. How can a leader even think about this, much less decide?
This Monday, Governor Polis showed us the way. Only time will tell if the specific paths he chose were the ideal ones. But, in presenting his decisions about Colorado's path back to normalcy, Governor Polis was honest about what we are trying to achieve, at what likely cost, and how we will monitor our progress to ensure that the correct balance between public health, both mental and physical, and economic prosperity are maintained.
Governor Polis made clear that his public health goal was ensuring that coronavirus patients who needed hospitalization would have it. He acknowledged that this virus will continue to spread until we have either a vaccine, cure, or about 60% of Coloradans get the virus and give us herd immunity. He offered no sugar coating and no counting on a future delivery of fairy dust to make it all better - just the plain truth that there is a real chance we could be in this for a long haul and that we need to make it sustainable.
To ensure that the disease spread didn't get ahead of available hospital beds, he presented model analyses showing how well different strategies minimized Colorado viral transmission. The models looked at different social distancing rules, using masks, and asking older citizens to stay deeply hidden for a bit longer. In presenting these credible analyses in a form that citizens can understand, he took a major step towards getting public buy-in on his decisions. Given that the plan's success heavily depends on our individual behaviors, public buy-in is critical.
Governor Polis also eviscerated the principle that these decisions should wait for more availability of testing. He pointed out that a level of testing that would allow us to identify and track all infected individuals will not happen any time soon. Instead, he proposed to use testing along with hospitalization and mortality data to track how we're doing as policy changes are implemented. Given the uncertainty about how this disease behaves, this data-based approach is the only one that make sense.
The essence of his plan is a gradual loosening of restrictions beginning in a few days with the focus on starting to get people back together and businesses back to work while asking citizens to wear masks and stay under 65% of pre-coronavirus social contact.
He also kept the monkey on the back of those of us over 65 or with health problems to stay home whenever possible since they are far more likely to be hospitalized and die. As a boomer who wants to live a few more years, I can tell you that most of us older folks will be glad to stay home to stay alive and allow the rest of Colorado to move closer to a normal life today.
The details are rolling out and, no doubt, there will be some devils in them. But, with every change will be an eye on the data to ensure that cases, hospitalizations, and deaths don't increase.
Finally, recognizing that not all Coloradans live the same life, he encouraged Colorado counties to devise their own plans to speed up a return to normal as allowed by their circumstances. Maybe our Boulder County Commissioners can come up with some ideas for us someday soon.
Governor Polis was honest, thoughtful, and clear in his science-based consideration of our options. He made difficult choices and defined a process for quickly identifying and correcting problems. Best of all, he made the decisions when he knew he had all the information he was going to get and, therefore, further delay reflected only cowardice, not wisdom.
What more can we ask of our leaders in this very difficult time?
What we need from our leaders during this coronavirus crisis are informed, well-thought out, and timely decisions that find the right balance between our health, economy, and need for social interaction.
To be sure, some decisions are much harder than others. In the case of coronavirus, the decision to lock down last month was easy. It became clear a few weeks into March that most of us had to go sit in a corner for a while to give our hospitals a fighting chance to handle the coming storm. Given that we have yet to hear of a state that ran out of hospital beds or ventilators, it seems that our leaders got that one right.
The much harder decisions were always going to be about when and how to let us go back to work and play together. Every day that passed without knowing when our lives would start moving back to normal was torturous. As the damage to our economy and psychological well-being piled up, the reasons to move past lockdown became ever more important. But, we didn't want to open the social faucet too much too fast and go back to drowning in coronavirus.
Scary, to say the least. How can a leader even think about this, much less decide?
This Monday, Governor Polis showed us the way. Only time will tell if the specific paths he chose were the ideal ones. But, in presenting his decisions about Colorado's path back to normalcy, Governor Polis was honest about what we are trying to achieve, at what likely cost, and how we will monitor our progress to ensure that the correct balance between public health, both mental and physical, and economic prosperity are maintained.
Governor Polis made clear that his public health goal was ensuring that coronavirus patients who needed hospitalization would have it. He acknowledged that this virus will continue to spread until we have either a vaccine, cure, or about 60% of Coloradans get the virus and give us herd immunity. He offered no sugar coating and no counting on a future delivery of fairy dust to make it all better - just the plain truth that there is a real chance we could be in this for a long haul and that we need to make it sustainable.
To ensure that the disease spread didn't get ahead of available hospital beds, he presented model analyses showing how well different strategies minimized Colorado viral transmission. The models looked at different social distancing rules, using masks, and asking older citizens to stay deeply hidden for a bit longer. In presenting these credible analyses in a form that citizens can understand, he took a major step towards getting public buy-in on his decisions. Given that the plan's success heavily depends on our individual behaviors, public buy-in is critical.
Governor Polis also eviscerated the principle that these decisions should wait for more availability of testing. He pointed out that a level of testing that would allow us to identify and track all infected individuals will not happen any time soon. Instead, he proposed to use testing along with hospitalization and mortality data to track how we're doing as policy changes are implemented. Given the uncertainty about how this disease behaves, this data-based approach is the only one that make sense.
The essence of his plan is a gradual loosening of restrictions beginning in a few days with the focus on starting to get people back together and businesses back to work while asking citizens to wear masks and stay under 65% of pre-coronavirus social contact.
He also kept the monkey on the back of those of us over 65 or with health problems to stay home whenever possible since they are far more likely to be hospitalized and die. As a boomer who wants to live a few more years, I can tell you that most of us older folks will be glad to stay home to stay alive and allow the rest of Colorado to move closer to a normal life today.
The details are rolling out and, no doubt, there will be some devils in them. But, with every change will be an eye on the data to ensure that cases, hospitalizations, and deaths don't increase.
Finally, recognizing that not all Coloradans live the same life, he encouraged Colorado counties to devise their own plans to speed up a return to normal as allowed by their circumstances. Maybe our Boulder County Commissioners can come up with some ideas for us someday soon.
Governor Polis was honest, thoughtful, and clear in his science-based consideration of our options. He made difficult choices and defined a process for quickly identifying and correcting problems. Best of all, he made the decisions when he knew he had all the information he was going to get and, therefore, further delay reflected only cowardice, not wisdom.
What more can we ask of our leaders in this very difficult time?