Donald Trump can win the Presidency
Published in the Boulder Daily Camera, March 2016
Yikes. What began as a summer fling has turned into something truly terrifying – the possibility that Donald Trump could be our next President. If that happens, many Americans, myself included, will experience the second most frightening moment in American history since WW II. First place still goes to the early 60's when the Cold War and Cuban Missile Crisis led the U.S. and Russia to the brink of a nuclear exchange over an argument about who had the longest fortitude. But if anyone thinks the idea of giving the Big Red Button and nuclear launch codes to a racist xenophobic narcissist is much less scary, they should reread the history of Europe in the mid-20th century. Electing anyone to lead our nation who calls for riots if he doesn't get his way is the fastest route imaginable to world chaos.
What has been reassuring – even among many Republicans – has always been confidence that Mr. Trump winning the Republican nomination just means that Hillary Clinton becomes our next President. Most of us were comfortable in believing that the American electorate would surely do their job and elect the candidate least likely to start a trade war, depression, and nuclear Armageddon.
Think again.
It is true that General Election polls pitting Donald Trump against Hillary Clinton have consistently shown that Ms. Clinton would win today. But, the recent advantage for Sen. Clinton has been as low as 5% and has averaged only around 10-12%. These numbers should offer little comfort. Contrast Sen. Clinton's current lead to the 5-point lead John Kerry had over incumbent George W. Bush in March 2004 and, even more frighteningly, the 19-point lead that George H.W. Bush had over Bill Clinton in March 1992. While not exactly a tossup, current polls and recent history tell us that Hillary is no sure thing against Donald even with all of his atrocious behavior on full display for the past nine months.
Add to that Ms. Clinton's well-established weaknesses consistently found in polls. What support she has among the independent voters that will decide this election is paper thin. People of all political persuasions see her as untrustworthy and unlikeable, and those things matter to Americans picking a President. And, as always seems the case with Ms. Clinton, there are several scandals lurking on the horizon, from emails to influence peddling with the Clinton Foundation. Any one of these bad eggs breaking would make a 5-12% lead shrink fast and election day far too interesting.
But, I still don't believe that's enough for the majority of Americans to pick Donald Trump to become our President this November. It would take something more. And, it has become increasingly clear just what that "something more" might be – a significant terrorist attack on American soil. Another 9/11 isn't required, just something or a few somethings that would put American safety in the face of international terrorism at the forefront of America's attention at the time of the election.
Those of us who were watching during 9/11 remember how our fundamental beliefs in American values changed as we watched the attacks unfold. All of a sudden, it seemed entirely reasonable to be suspicious of immigrants, close our borders, and single out a class of people – Muslims – for extra scrutiny. Sure, our cultural digressions did not sink to the level they did when we put Japanese-Americans in internment camps during the Second World War. However, American opinions on our role in the world and what principles were worth sacrificing to ensure our safety changed dramatically and fast after 9/11. And it took us a few years to get our heads back on straight.
Donald Trump doesn't need a few years, just a few months. After this past year of European terrorism, Americans are concerned. An attack by Islamic terrorists on American soil would send many Americans into the angry hunker-down mindset that has fueled much of Trump's popularity thus far. Mr. Trump would predictably and with some justification attack the Democrats' unwillingness to confront Islamic terrorism directly. It won't help that President Obama has spent months trying to explain to Americans that worldwide terrorism has nothing to do with Islam and isn't really much of a problem anyway. That would be red meat for many Trump stump speeches to come.
Yep, that should be plenty to get us a President Trump.
So, for those of you who have not spent the past nine months as a Republican-in-denial of the threat posed by Donald Trump, welcome to the club.
Yikes. What began as a summer fling has turned into something truly terrifying – the possibility that Donald Trump could be our next President. If that happens, many Americans, myself included, will experience the second most frightening moment in American history since WW II. First place still goes to the early 60's when the Cold War and Cuban Missile Crisis led the U.S. and Russia to the brink of a nuclear exchange over an argument about who had the longest fortitude. But if anyone thinks the idea of giving the Big Red Button and nuclear launch codes to a racist xenophobic narcissist is much less scary, they should reread the history of Europe in the mid-20th century. Electing anyone to lead our nation who calls for riots if he doesn't get his way is the fastest route imaginable to world chaos.
What has been reassuring – even among many Republicans – has always been confidence that Mr. Trump winning the Republican nomination just means that Hillary Clinton becomes our next President. Most of us were comfortable in believing that the American electorate would surely do their job and elect the candidate least likely to start a trade war, depression, and nuclear Armageddon.
Think again.
It is true that General Election polls pitting Donald Trump against Hillary Clinton have consistently shown that Ms. Clinton would win today. But, the recent advantage for Sen. Clinton has been as low as 5% and has averaged only around 10-12%. These numbers should offer little comfort. Contrast Sen. Clinton's current lead to the 5-point lead John Kerry had over incumbent George W. Bush in March 2004 and, even more frighteningly, the 19-point lead that George H.W. Bush had over Bill Clinton in March 1992. While not exactly a tossup, current polls and recent history tell us that Hillary is no sure thing against Donald even with all of his atrocious behavior on full display for the past nine months.
Add to that Ms. Clinton's well-established weaknesses consistently found in polls. What support she has among the independent voters that will decide this election is paper thin. People of all political persuasions see her as untrustworthy and unlikeable, and those things matter to Americans picking a President. And, as always seems the case with Ms. Clinton, there are several scandals lurking on the horizon, from emails to influence peddling with the Clinton Foundation. Any one of these bad eggs breaking would make a 5-12% lead shrink fast and election day far too interesting.
But, I still don't believe that's enough for the majority of Americans to pick Donald Trump to become our President this November. It would take something more. And, it has become increasingly clear just what that "something more" might be – a significant terrorist attack on American soil. Another 9/11 isn't required, just something or a few somethings that would put American safety in the face of international terrorism at the forefront of America's attention at the time of the election.
Those of us who were watching during 9/11 remember how our fundamental beliefs in American values changed as we watched the attacks unfold. All of a sudden, it seemed entirely reasonable to be suspicious of immigrants, close our borders, and single out a class of people – Muslims – for extra scrutiny. Sure, our cultural digressions did not sink to the level they did when we put Japanese-Americans in internment camps during the Second World War. However, American opinions on our role in the world and what principles were worth sacrificing to ensure our safety changed dramatically and fast after 9/11. And it took us a few years to get our heads back on straight.
Donald Trump doesn't need a few years, just a few months. After this past year of European terrorism, Americans are concerned. An attack by Islamic terrorists on American soil would send many Americans into the angry hunker-down mindset that has fueled much of Trump's popularity thus far. Mr. Trump would predictably and with some justification attack the Democrats' unwillingness to confront Islamic terrorism directly. It won't help that President Obama has spent months trying to explain to Americans that worldwide terrorism has nothing to do with Islam and isn't really much of a problem anyway. That would be red meat for many Trump stump speeches to come.
Yep, that should be plenty to get us a President Trump.
So, for those of you who have not spent the past nine months as a Republican-in-denial of the threat posed by Donald Trump, welcome to the club.
